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[News] “DRAM Godfather” Kau Rejects TSMC DRAM Rumors, Flags Glut Risk from CXMT’s 10-Fab Ramp Within 2 Years

What happened

Reported on 2026-11-11: Amid reports that TSMC is exploring 3D DRAM production at NVIDIA's urging, Charles Kau, dubbed the “Godfather of DRAM” and former president of Taiwan's Nanya Technology, dismissed the possibility, arguing TSMC would never venture into DRAM manufacturing; according to Tom's Hardware citing a company spokesperson, TSMC has pushed back against the speculation, reaffirming its commitment to its core foundry business. Kau flagged a greater threat in China's CXMT's aggressive expansion: according to TechNews citing Kau, CXMT is building 10 wafer fabs across Beijing, Shanghai and other locations, with massive new capacity expected to come online within two years, and he warned the expansion could trigger a global memory supply glut and squeeze Taiwanese suppliers, even if CXMT remains reliant on mature processes due to EUV restrictions. CXMT is also targeting the launch of 4F²-based DDR5 RDIMMs by year-end, but Kau questioned whether the architecture could reach mass production, arguing that even substantial R&D spending may not overcome its technical barriers. According to TechNews citing Kau, DRAM scaling remains at 6F², with no manufacturer yet achieving 4F²; DRAM's one-transistor, one-capacitor structure makes further miniaturization particularly challenging, with capacitor scaling and leakage posing major obstacles, and these constraints also complicate 3D DRAM development; he stressed that even industry heavyweights Samsung and Micron have yet to overcome these hurdles, casting further doubt on CXMT's ambitious timeline. Separately, Kau noted the competitive landscape differs in NAND flash: China's YMTC, whose early development he personally led, has emerged as a global technology leader, even licensing patents to Samsung and Micron; unlike China's logic foundry sector, which remains constrained by limited access to EUV lithography equipment, its flash memory industry holds a competitive edge backed by substantial fundraising capabilities. Kau also cited industry precedent: TSMC affiliate Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), whose unsuccessful venture into memory manufacturing led it to refocus on foundry operations, underscoring the challenges of crossing between the two businesses.