NuAxiSemiconductor trade intelligence

[News] Intel’s Mixed 3Q26: PC, Israel Fab Weigh on Guidance, but EMIB Brightens as a Couple of Customers Near Announcement

What happened

Reported on 2026-10-30, Intel's 3Q26 results were mixed: Data Center and AI (DCAI) revenue surged 78% to $7.3 billion and operating income more than tripled to $3.04 billion; however, according to Reuters, a fatal explosion in October at Intel's Kiryat Gat fab in Israel, which primarily produces data center processors using 10nm technology, is expected to cost roughly $600 million in revenue over two quarters, and sluggish PC demand could persist through 1H27. Reflecting these headwinds, Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, missing the $17.07 billion LSEG consensus, with adjusted earnings projected at 25 cents per share versus analysts' 43-cent expectation. CFO David Zinsner said the incident would reduce fourth-quarter revenue by roughly $300 million and shave 200 basis points off gross margin, with a similar revenue hit expected in 1Q27; after a two-week shutdown, Intel aims to begin restoring production at the Israeli facility by the end of this week. In the PC business, 3Q26 sales fell 5% to $8.10 billion, missing analysts' $8.98 billion estimate, and Zinsner expects fourth-quarter PC business revenue to plunge by a percentage in the mid-20s. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said he was disappointed the company could not meet strong customer demand, citing manufacturing supply shortages, an unprecedented memory crunch and resulting PC demand weakness as near-term challenges; he also noted that despite rapidly ramping Intel 3 wafer output, an industry-wide shortage of advanced organic substrates for EMIB packaging continues to limit production scaling. Zinsner also warned the chipmaker is unlikely to generate positive cash flow in 2026; Intel had raised its capital expenditure guidance from $18 billion to $20 billion in July, with a further substantial increase expected in 2027 to support its manufacturing buildout. On the positive side, Zinsner expects industry-wide server CPU unit shipments to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027; Intel Foundry revenue surged 58% to $6.7 billion in 3Q26 including internal sales, with its operating loss narrowing to $1.85 billion from $2.32 billion a year earlier. Tan said a couple of customers will be ready to announce adoption of Intel's EMIB/EMIB-T advanced packaging over the next two quarters, and that in October Intel delivered its industry-standard 0.9 process design kit (PDK) for the 14A process to select customers as planned. TrendForce expects Google to adopt EMIB-T in 2027, while AWS is also testing EMIB technology; industry sources earlier suggested Google's TPU v9 lineup includes three variants: Broadcom-designed WhaleFish (expected to use TSMC's CoWoS-L with mass production slated for 2H27), MediaTek-designed HumuFish (set for 1H28 mass production relying exclusively on Intel's EMIB-T) and TriggerFish (also planned to use EMIB-T, targeted for 2H28 or later).