NuAxiSemiconductor trade intelligence

Team Group CEO warns memory crisis could reach point where 'even money can't buy goods' — will get worse next year, with 'no downward trend in price whatsoever'

What happened

Team Group CEO Chen Ching-wen said during the company's November 2 earnings call that the memory chip shortage is expected to become worse from the end of 2026 until the end of 2027, saying there is "no downward price trend whatsoever" and that some purchasers could face a scenario of "even money can't buy goods." He noted that the spread between spot and contract prices for memory chips ranges from 30% to 50%, meaning short-term supply is significantly more expensive than long-term contracts, and said "we have contracts but can't get enough volume, so we have to go to the spot market and pay a premium to grab supply." Contract prices for 16GB DDR5 chips climbed from $8.70 in October 2025 to $48 by September 2026, an increase of more than 550% in the past 12 months, and the price hikes show no sign of letting up. He estimated supply and demand will not balance until the latter half of 2028 or perhaps even later. He also noted that even though CXMT and YMTC have increased their market share to almost 10%, most high-end DRAM and NAND flash chips still come from Kioxia, Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix, and the prices of the chips these Chinese companies make still track the market closely, meaning they are not the budget savior many expected; he therefore expects pricing for budget components will not ease until 2029, while high-end chips will continue to remain in short supply. These estimates go against Acer CEO Jason Chen's prediction that component pricing will reverse by the latter half of 2027, with only high-end chips like LPDDR5X-9600 and Nvidia N1-series SoCs remaining in shortage; PCs will still experience hikes between 5% and 20% until the end of this year, plateau during the first half of 2027, before finally going down.