[News] Unimicron Warns of IC Substrate Crunch: Up to 30-Month Equipment Lead Times, 20% Material Gap in 2027

What happened

Citing Unimicron Chairman S.C. Chien at the TPCA Show on October 20, Wealth Magazine and Economic Daily News report that AI accelerator demand driving advanced packaging such as CoWoS and EMIB is spreading supply bottlenecks to critical materials and equipment: lead times for some key equipment have stretched to 30 months, and critical materials could face a 20% supply shortfall in 2027. On the materials side, low-CTE glass fiber cloth, copper-clad laminates (CCL) and ABF are particularly tight; lead times have lengthened for more than 80% of equipment, with over 20% seeing delays of more than double their original lead times. Chien projected CoWoS capacity to grow 6.8-fold by 2028 from 2024 levels, alongside a 6.3-fold increase in hyperscaler capex, while IC substrate capacity is expected to merely double and DRAM capacity to expand 1.8-fold; he cautioned these multiples do not necessarily signal shortages given different capacity bases. Wealth Magazine notes DRAM and substrate shortages are already emerging in 2025 and 2026, and prolonged equipment lead times and tight material supply could make it harder to synchronize capacity expansion. Per MoneyDJ, substrate sizes have grown from roughly 1x reticle size in early designs to 3x in 2025, with 5x targeted for 2026 and 5–9x by 2027–2028, potentially reaching 12–14x; per Central News Agency, AI chips can draw currents exceeding 1,000 amperes, raising demands on power integrity, high-speed signal transmission, thermal management and thermomechanical reliability, and fine-line requirements approaching 12–14x reticle size could exceed individual substrate makers' capabilities, complicating yield improvement. In Intel's EMIB supply chain, substrate yields have recently improved to around 45%, with suppliers reportedly targeting 50% by 4Q26 and 60% by 1Q27.

Impact and signal

Affected components and suppliers

Source and time

Source: TrendForce · 10/19/2026 · View original source