Rising component costs could push notebook shipments lower in 2027

What happened

In an analysis published October 08, 2026, TrendForce said the biggest challenge for the notebook market next year is no longer getting hold of components but whether consumers are willing to pay for them. TrendForce currently expects global notebook shipments to fall by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027; if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated and brands pass more of the cost on to consumers, higher retail prices could lengthen replacement cycles further and push the decline into the high-single-digit range. 2026 shipments were supported by improved CPU availability, early procurement by brands and replacement purchases brought forward, which TrendForce does not see as a real recovery in end demand, as some purchases originally expected in the second half of 2026 and beyond have already been made. In a mainstream notebook with a suggested retail price of USD 900, the CPU, DRAM and SSD accounted for around 68% of BOM cost in the third quarter of 2026. On the component side, DRAM is likely to remain tight as AI servers continue to absorb advanced process capacity while PC DRAM supply growth risks remaining limited; NAND Flash constraints could ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online; and PCBs, MLCCs and PMICs are under pressure from capacity allocation, raw material costs and geopolitical factors, which could mean higher prices or longer lead times. TrendForce also estimates the share of global notebook production outside China will fall from around 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026 and could drop below 20% in 2027.

Impact and signal

Affected components and suppliers

Source and time

Source: Evertiq · 10/8/2026 · View original source