China to increase leading-edge chip output by 5x in two years, report claims — aims to lift 7nm and 5nm production to 100,000 wafers per month, targeting half a million monthly by 2030

What happened

China aims to increase monthly wafer starts for 7nm/5nm chips from below 20,000 to 100,000 within two years, targeting 500,000 by 2030, primarily via SMIC. This aggressive ramp faces severe constraints due to lack of access to leading-edge foreign lithography tools. Bearish: This long-term capacity expansion plan, if successful, would increase global supply of mature advanced nodes, potentially pressuring prices, but execution risks from equipment bans are extreme.

Impact and signal

Affected components and suppliers

Source and time

Source: Tom's Hardware · 2/25/2026 · View original source