[News] After TSMC’s 3Q26 Earnings: Key Brokerage Takeaways as 2028 Capex Forecasts Reach US$105B

What happened

Following TSMC's 3Q26 earnings, foreign brokerages published takeaways: TSMC raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 44% YoY and forecast another record quarter in 4Q26, while maintaining 2026 capex guidance at US$60–64 billion but signaling significantly higher spending over the next three years; the article notes that amid reports of rising semiconductor equipment prices, TSMC acknowledged that "tool inflation is real," setting the stage for further capex increases. Brokerages accordingly raised capex forecasts: UBS is the most bullish, expecting spending to surge roughly 45% YoY to US$90 billion in 2027 before climbing to US$105 billion in 2028; Morgan Stanley, citing initial checks with equipment suppliers, suggested EUV tool bookings could double in 2027 followed by another 25–30% increase in 2028, and raised its capex estimates to US$83 billion and US$92 billion respectively; Goldman Sachs and BofA Securities both see 2027 spending reaching US$85 billion. These figures are plans/forecasts, not realized spending. Capacity: TSMC plans to accelerate 2nm production and expand 3nm capacity (four fabs planned for the latter); 2nm's revenue share jumped to 8% in 3Q26 from 3% the previous quarter, with management expecting capacity to "more than double in 2027." Margins face headwinds: 4Q gross margin guidance of 65–67% suggests limited upside from 3Q's 66.4% (brokerage assessments attribute this to the 2nm ramp weighing on profitability); Citi, UBS and Goldman Sachs all project a 66.6% gross margin for 2026, rising to 66.7–68.9% in 2027 and 67.1–68.9% in 2028. Pricing: Daiwa forecasts TSMC's blended ASP on 8-inch-equivalent wafers rising from US$3,513 in 2026 to US$4,034 in 2027 and US$4,231 in 2028; UBS's model is more bullish at US$3,691/US$4,417/US$5,177 for 2026/2027/2028. Advanced packaging: Aletheia expects cutting-edge wafer revenue to double and advanced packaging revenue to quadruple between 2026 and 2028; Goldman Sachs projects CoWoS capacity reaching 1.275 million wafers in 2026 (about 106,000 per month), surging 114% YoY to 2.73 million in 2027 (227,500 monthly), then climbing another 27% to 3.48 million wafers in 2028 (nearly 290,000 per month).

Impact and signal

Affected components and suppliers

Source and time

Source: TrendForce · 10/15/2026 · View original source