[News] TSMC Lifts 2026 Growth Forecast to 44%, Eyes Record 4Q Revenue of Up to US$54.3B, Up 14% QoQ

What happened

After posting record-high net profit in the third quarter, TSMC management projects 4Q26 revenue to land between US$52.3 billion and US$54.3 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 58% and a sequential gain of around 14%. Based on an assumed exchange rate of NT$31.8 per U.S. dollar, TSMC forecasts a gross margin of 65%–67% and an operating margin of 56.5%–56.8%, with the rapid expansion of 2nm production weighing on margins. Despite the near-term margin pressure, CEO C.C. Wei struck an upbeat tone on demand for leading-edge technologies, and TSMC now expects full-year 2026 revenue to grow approximately 44% in U.S. dollar terms, up from its previous outlook of around 40%. TSMC reiterated its 2026 capital expenditure guidance of US$60 billion–US$64 billion and reaffirmed plans to spend significantly more over 2026–2028 than in the preceding three years, underscoring its commitment to expanding capacity for long-term demand, fueled by AI including emerging agentic AI applications. In the third quarter, 2nm's share of wafer revenue climbed to 8% from 3% in 2Q26, 3nm accounted for 33%, 5nm 28% and 7nm 10%, with advanced nodes (7nm and below) contributing 79% of total wafer revenue; HPC platform revenue surged 22% sequentially to 68% of third-quarter revenue, smartphones 21%, and automotive and IoT 4% each.

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Source: TrendForce · 10/14/2026 · View original source